Loading Almonds at Bapu Farming Orchards

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With Almond harvest almost at its end and growers heading out for vacation, California shipped a record 201.6 million lbs. in Sept.16. And with second month of record shipments, YTD shipments are ahead of last year by 102.4 million lbs. and 38%. Commitments are up with a record 359 million lbs. Current commitments are 639.6 million lbs. and 45% more than at the end of last September.

Key market updates:

The U.S. market is up 12% YTD, with two consecutive months of growth, thanks to low prices compared to last year. Shipments to India are up 82% compared to last year with over 2,000 containers being shipped in August and September. India will absorb these containers in the next 2-3 months with Diwali coming up in next 20 days and other end of year festivals and wedding season. China shipments are up 85% compared to last year with Chinese New Year. China will continue to look for additional coverage in the next 4-5 weeks. Middle East shipments are up to 115% greater than last year, primarily driven by Turkish imports. Shipments to the EU are 22% up, thanks to lower prices and market elasticity due to lower prices. Spain is also expecting smaller crop leading to extra imports from California.

analysis

Almonds are almost 50% sold out as per (Sept.16 shipped+ committed) comparing to the 2.05~2.5 Billion lbs. 2016-2017 crop size guesstimate! Overall we are approximately at the same price levels as we were in 2013-14 and the shipment trend is similar!

Current Price levels*FAS CA Ports:
Std ~$2.65
NPX 25/27 ~ $3.35 California 25/27SSR ~ $2.80
In a Nutshell, with current strong shipment trend we expect steady increase in price levels in coming months!

 

Bikram Hundal
Marketing & Operations
BAPU Almond Co. INC

*Shipment Data source, Almond board of California, Sept. 16 position report.